Friday, June 22, 2012

Honing the arrival time projection

At 3:57 PM EDT, Don or Dur checked in at Time Station No. 48, in Cumberland, MD.  We're presently waiting for them in Mercersburg, PA, about 26 miles beyondTime Station No. 50.  Once we complete the final team exchange in Mercersburg, Michael & Dave will have another 150 miles of racing to Annapolis, where they'll be joined by Don & Dur for a 6-mile "parade" to the Annapolis City Dock.

So what time will they get to Annapolis?

The going has been tough today.  Climbs through the gaps of the Appalachians in West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania combine for, probably, the toughest day of racing in all of RAAM (including the day of bucking ferocious winds in Kansas).  Speeds are slowing accordingly, but our guys are still putting in average speeds in excess of 16 mph, which, in light of these steep and repetitive climbs (we drove through them today, ahead of the racers), is amazing.  As of the latest time station, the team's cumulative average speed is still above 19 mph - 19.22.

RAAM projects United 4 Health will finish the race at 3:11 AM EDT tomorrow, Saturday, 6/23.  I'm not sure what their algorithm is for predicting arrival times, but they've been pretty consistently too conservative on their time station predictions.  On the other hand, assuming this day in the mountains reduces the team's cumulative average speed to something in the 18.9 to 19.0 mph range, that's probably a reasonable prediction.  Still, I think it wouldn't be surprising to see our boys rolling up at City Dock earlier than that, say 2:00 AM.

Under any scenario, it looks to be an inconvenient time, but these guys have been riding around the clock for nearly 7 days.  If there's any chance you can make it to the Annapolis City Dock for a middle-of-the-night arrival, we can promise there will be much cause for celebration.

I'll try to update my estimate again later this evening, or, check the United 4 Health Racing site for updates.  Also, I'm sure the RAAM projections will be continuously updated as the racers cross through additional time station checkpoints.

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