What time will we arrive in Annapolis?

I didn’t even allow myself to think about arriving in Annapolis for the first few days we were on the road.  But now that we’ve passed the half-way mark – late yesterday afternoon, somewhere between Cunningham, KS and Calista, KS – I’ve begun to think about not only arriving but what time of day our guys will roll over the finish line at the Annapolis City Dock.

Of course, this is a total SWAG, and the actual time will depend on events unfolding right up to the moment they actually arrive.  On the other hand, it makes sense that we ought to be able to ballpark the arrival time to some degree, since it will be a function of average speed (which we’re watching closely), and, anyway, I’ve got hours on the road behind the wheel of an RV to think about it.  Plus, I know some readers of this blog are planning to show up to cheer the team to the finish line, so it might be helpful to have at least some feel for when the festivities might come off.

So, at the risk of tempting the gods of weather, road conditions, injury, and a host of other potential fates, here’s a stab at projecting our potential arrival time on Saturday, June 23, 2012.  Remember: this is a ballpark estimate (and, please, check my math & let me know if I’m way off base ... everyone here, including me, is way too sleep-deprived to be trusted with even simple math).

Based on a departure time from Oceanside, CA of 12:35 p.m. PDT on Saturday, June 16, 2012, if the team makes its goal of 18.0 miles per hour over the entire route, they’ll arrive at the finish line at about 11:00 AM on Saturday, June 23, 2012. 

For every tenth (0.1) mile per hour their average speed ends up above or below 18.0, the arrival time will be shortened or lengthened by about an hour. Here’s a table, based on rounded figures and rough calculations:

Avg Speed	Arrival Time (Sat., 6/23)
19.3	Midnight Friday
19.2	1:00 AM
19.1	1:00 AM
19.0	2:00 AM
18.9	3:00 AM
18.8	4:00 AM
18.7	5:00 AM
18.6	6:00 AM
18.5	6:00 AM
18.4	7:00 AM
18.3	8:00 AM
18.2	9:00 AM
18.1	10:00 AM
18.0	11:00 AM
17.9	Noon Saturday
17.8	1:00 PM
17.7	2:00 PM
17.6	3:00 PM
17.5	4:00 PM
17.4	5:00 PM
17.3	6:00 PM
17.2	7:00 PM
17.1	8:00 PM
17.0	9:00 PM
16.9	10:00 PM
16.8	11:00 PM
16.7	Midnight Saturday

You may have noticed a couple of slots where the arrival time stays on the same hour, even though the speed varies.  That’s because of the rounding function I used in my spreadsheet.  Also, remember that this is just a rough guide … something to think about if you’re planning to travel to Annapolis for the finish (or if, like all of us, you’re already traveling there and have time to think about it!).  I’m sure the official team web site will be updated with much more accurate information about projected arrival as the event comes closer.

P.S.  At the rate these boys are flying along – averaging 19.3 mph through time station 33 (in Jefferson City, MO), which they went through at 3:49 CDT this afternoon – I may have to revise this chart to add potential arrival times on Friday night!  We're expecting to be in Illinois before morning!

Maybe we should start a little pool to guess the team's arrival time.